Global Warming Changing Russian Winters

Climate change is altering the nature of Russian winters, according to a recent analysis by the Yesli Byt Tochnym ("To Be Precise") project.

The study examined changes in snowfall over the last 15 years and concluded that winters across Russia have shifted, most notably in southern regions. Snow now arrives one to two weeks later, and the number of days with at least a centimeter of snow cover has dropped by 20 to 30 percent. In Siberia and the Far East, however, snowfall and snowdrift height are on the rise.

Experts say these variations stem from global climate change. Rising average annual temperatures mean winter cold sets in later, and summer and autumn seasons last longer. As a result, the first snowfalls in most Russian cities now come later than they did 15 years ago. Of 31 cities studied, 22 saw the first snow arrive later in 2020 than it did in 1981. In Stavropol, snow now falls 14 days later than it did on average from 1981 to 2010, and in Makhachkala, it arrives 13 days later.

Snow is not only coming later; it is also falling less frequently. The total number of days per year with more than one centimeter of snow cover dropped in all major cities except Tyumen, Omsk, and Krasnoyarsk. Once again, the change is most pronounced in the South: Krasnodar saw a 37 percent decrease in snowy days, Rostov-on-Don 28 percent, and Makhachkala 22 percent.

Lower snowfall levels can be attributed to declining precipitation in Southern Russia, where any snow that does fall often melts or subsides quickly. In other parts of the European portion of the country, winters with little snow are becoming more common. In St. Petersburg, for example, an average of 18 centimeters fell between 1981 and 2010, but from 2011 to 2023, there were six winters with only a third or half of that amount.

Conditions in Siberia tell a different story. Snowfall there has increased or stayed the same in recent years. Since 2011, Krasnoyarsk has seen more snow than its average 18 centimeters nearly every winter except one, while Irkutsk and Novosibirsk have maintained historic norms.

“Almost everywhere in Russia, except in the south of the European part, precipitation is rising,” said climatologist Daria Gushchina. “And since precipitation is increasing, the maximum height of the snow cover is also going up.”

She added that as average temperatures climb, the atmosphere holds more water vapor, which leads to increased precipitation — often in extreme events. At the same time, the average number of snowy days in Russia will continue to decrease, said Darya Gushchina.