Putin's Internet Offensive

In a recent analysis for The Bell, Alexandra Prokopenko shows that the Kremlin's "spring offensive" to shutdown the mobile internet, VPN services and Telegram, has revealed a dysfunctional regime that only knows how to respond by ramping up control and censorship.

The offensive, Prokopenko wrote:

"unexpectedly exposed the mechanisms by which the Russian state operates. The episode made starkly clear who makes decisions (the FSB, or security services acting through civilian officials), who bears the costs (businesses, citizens, parts of the elite), and why these groups never overlap. For years, the coalition of business and government rested on an unspoken compact: business loyalty in exchange for government predictability. That compact was broken in 2022, but the authorities kept investing effort and money in sustaining the illusion of its existence. Now the money has run out, and the illusions are dissolving."

The first thing that was different about this offensive, that began with the 19-day mobile internet shutdown in Moscow, was the complete government silence, Prokopenko said. Even those normally in the know inside the government seemed to know nothing and be able to reveal nothing about what was going on. 

"After internet access was restored in Moscow, The Bell was able to piece together some details about how the shutdown unfolded. Shortly before it began, telecom operators received a list of base stations where internet service was to be cut. That list came from the FSB's Scientific and Technical Service — the agency division responsible for communications and technological security. It handles both the technical side of wiretapping and protection against cyberattacks. Meanwhile, the security officials issuing instructions to operators hinted that the order had been 'handed down to them from above' as well."

The next step was the crackdown on VPNs – Virtual Private Networks that allow users to circumvent censorship and government blockages of websites. The Ministry of Digital Development met with the heads of the country's largest telecom operators and digital platforms, who were ordered to charge users separately for traffic routed through VPNs. And, starting on April 15, websites and platforms will reportedly be required to block users accessing them with a VPN, despite the fact that it is impossible to know if someone is using a VPN to access one's site. The ministry also has instructed mobile operators "to block users from topping up their Apple ID account balance — one of the primary methods of paying for VPN services."

According to Russian Forbes, orders to carry out the VPN crackdown came directly from President Vladimir Putin, which means, for bureaucrats and the mobile operators, there is no way out but through.

This is simply how the system works now.

"All of these events," Prokopenko wrote, "compressed into a single month, are not a malfunction in the system of governance. This is simply how the system works now." She goes on to quote an IT insider who said, bitterly, "The industry they spent so long building is being slowly killed."

And the government itself is suffering from the actions from The Center. Crippling the internet is hampering business activity and will be yet another blow to the economy. Forcing out all messaging apps and requiring all Russians to use MAX (which gives the security services full access to one's life and thoughts) is reinforcing the neo-Soviet dualism (e.g. "kitchen table discussions"), where even government officials have private and public phones. The common trope, "This is not a conversation for the telephone," is freighted with yet more significance.

The political system has gotten stuck.

Some influential and daring government folks are actually speaking out about the ill-effects of the offensive (particularly the banning of Telegram), Prokopenko notes, but the outcome is rather uncertain: "This is a portrait of a political system that has gotten stuck: one part of it is inflicting obvious economic and political damage on another, but there is no mechanism to resolve that conflict rationally — everything depends on the mood of the top official at any given moment, and on who can get an appointment to see him."

Caught in the middle is Minister of Digital Development Maksut Shadayev. Previously lionized by the IT industry, he is increasingly being disparaged for overseeing crackdowns, censorship and restrictions. 

What does all of this mean? Prokopenko offers an ominous analysis:

The popular interpretation of what is happening reaches for a convenient formulation: "security service overreach." This is not quite right. The security services have not captured the system — they are the system, in its current configuration. A regime that has lost the capacity for internal self-correction compensates by expanding control over infrastructure. That is what the security services are doing now, and they are doing it at the expense of those who formally sit inside the system — business and civilian officials alike. For ordinary citizens, this means not merely the blocking of a few favorite services, but the end of the free internet.