October 03, 2007

Putinâ??s Plan


I saw this coming. Really, I did...

For months, I have been privately sharing a prediction about Putin's succession plan. Unfortunately, I really cannot prove it, since I never committed the prediction to print. So you're going to have to trust me on this.

Same thing happened back in the 1980s, when I correctly predicted the Andropov-Chernenko-Gorbachev succession before each slogging step. But of course I did not put that in print either. There were no blogs back then.

Yesterday, Putin announced he would be running at the head of United Russia's ticket ("gratefully accepting" the offer the same way CPSU bosses used to humbly accept their party seat nominations), and that he thought that serving as PM after his departure was a "realistic idea" (1) if United Russia swept the Duma in the Dec. 2 elections and (2) if a "worthy candidate for the presidency" was selected.

Is it just me, or does this smack of Ivan IV's (the Terrible) demand of the boyars in January 1565?

In 1564, Ivan ostensibly abdicated the throne and retreated to Aleksandrova Sloboda. The boyars begged him to return, each fearing the rule of one of their rivals more than that of Ivan... And so Ivan agreed to return to power if he were granted two things: the right to punish all traitors as he saw fit (brutal execution being his preferred mode), and the right to set up a separate kingdom - the Oprichnina - with its own army, boyars, nobles, etc. The boyars agreed, and so began one of the most horrific chapters in Russian history.

Of course, historical analogies are always a stretch...

Anyway, for the record, here is what Putin is going to do. The actual mechanics could differ slightly. But the end result will be the same.

1. Soon after the December 2 elections, Putin will "Yeltsinovat": he will resign the presidency early, making PM Zubkov (a long time trusted coat tail rider and trusted caretaker figure) interim president. Elections will be required within 90 days. But then, presidential elections are set for March 2 anyway, so they will just be held on schedule.

[It is equally likely Putin will decide to not Yeltsinovat, and just let the elections take place as planned, anointing Zubkov or Ivanov or some other pawn as his preferred choice for president. But the outcome will be the same. On March 3, Russia will have a president of Putin's choosing.]

2. Zubkov will be elected president by a landslide, because it will be well-understood ahead of time that he is going to appoint Putin as his PM.

3. Putin will serve for a time as PM. But not likely for long. Because there are two problems with being PM. First, the Russian constitution and tradition puts all power in the presidency. Second, being PM puts you in the firing line and immediately blameworthy if the economy hiccups or worse.

4. After a suitable period of uneasiness without Putin in the Kremlin, Zubkov - who has reached the official governmental age of retirement already, by the way (see how neat this all is?) - will step down as president on health or age grounds. Putin, as PM, will assume the presidency on an interim basis, with elections to be held within three months.

5. Putin will coast to his third term in a shotgun election.

The Russian constitution only bars three "consequetive" terms as president. By this castling move, Putin sidesteps that problem and gains the right to serve two more terms as president. Could not this last bit be challenged in the Constitutional Court? Sure. But given the rubber-stampishness of the Russian courts, nothing would come of it.

So there you have it. Committed to print. Or at least pixels.

Let the show begin...
Like this post? Get a weekly email digest + member-only deals

Some of Our Books

Tolstoy Bilingual

Tolstoy Bilingual

This compact, yet surprisingly broad look at the life and work of Tolstoy spans from one of his earliest stories to one of his last, looking at works that made him famous and others that made him notorious. 
The Little Golden Calf

The Little Golden Calf

Our edition of The Little Golden Calf, one of the greatest Russian satires ever, is the first new translation of this classic novel in nearly fifty years. It is also the first unabridged, uncensored English translation ever, and is 100% true to the original 1931 serial publication in the Russian journal 30 Dnei. Anne O. Fisher’s translation is copiously annotated, and includes an introduction by Alexandra Ilf, the daughter of one of the book’s two co-authors.
Murder at the Dacha

Murder at the Dacha

Senior Lieutenant Pavel Matyushkin has a problem. Several, actually. Not the least of them is the fact that a powerful Soviet boss has been murdered, and Matyushkin's surly commander has given him an unreasonably short time frame to close the case.
Jews in Service to the Tsar

Jews in Service to the Tsar

Benjamin Disraeli advised, “Read no history: nothing but biography, for that is life without theory.” With Jews in Service to the Tsar, Lev Berdnikov offers us 28 biographies spanning five centuries of Russian Jewish history, and each portrait opens a new window onto the history of Eastern Europe’s Jews, illuminating dark corners and challenging widely-held conceptions about the role of Jews in Russian history.
Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka

Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka

In this comprehensive, quixotic and addictive book, Edwin Trommelen explores all facets of the Russian obsession with vodka. Peering chiefly through the lenses of history and literature, Trommelen offers up an appropriately complex, rich and bittersweet portrait, based on great respect for Russian culture.
Chekhov Bilingual

Chekhov Bilingual

Some of Chekhov's most beloved stories, with English and accented Russian on facing pages throughout. 
93 Untranslatable Russian Words

93 Untranslatable Russian Words

Every language has concepts, ideas, words and idioms that are nearly impossible to translate into another language. This book looks at nearly 100 such Russian words and offers paths to their understanding and translation by way of examples from literature and everyday life. Difficult to translate words and concepts are introduced with dictionary definitions, then elucidated with citations from literature, speech and prose, helping the student of Russian comprehend the word/concept in context.
The Moscow Eccentric

The Moscow Eccentric

Advance reviewers are calling this new translation "a coup" and "a remarkable achievement." This rediscovered gem of a novel by one of Russia's finest writers explores some of the thorniest issues of the early twentieth century.
The Little Humpbacked Horse (bilingual)

The Little Humpbacked Horse (bilingual)

A beloved Russian classic about a resourceful Russian peasant, Vanya, and his miracle-working horse, who together undergo various trials, exploits and adventures at the whim of a laughable tsar, told in rich, narrative poetry.
Murder and the Muse

Murder and the Muse

KGB Chief Andropov has tapped Matyushkin to solve a brazen jewel heist from Picasso’s wife at the posh Metropole Hotel. But when the case bleeds over into murder, machinations, and international intrigue, not everyone is eager to see where the clues might lead.

About Us

Russian Life is a publication of a 30-year-young, award-winning publishing house that creates a bimonthly magazine, books, maps, and other products for Russophiles the world over.

Latest Posts

Our Contacts

Russian Life
73 Main Street, Suite 402
Montpelier VT 05602

802-223-4955