Another Consequence of the War?

According to data from Russia’s Pension Fund, in 2023, for the first time in over a decade, the number of people with disabilities in Russia rose.

As of December 31, 2023, 11 million Russians had disability status, marking an increase of 108,000 from the beginning of the year. The independent publication Verstka attributed this rise to growth in childhood disabilities and possible corruption in medical examinations, especially in the North Caucasus regions. Contributing factors may also include registrations from occupied territories in the ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine and military injuries.

Since 2011, the number of people with disabilities in Russia had steadily declined, a trend authorities linked to the aging of an older generation of disabled citizens. The upward trend seen in 2023 marks a significant shift. Notably, Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) data does not account for territories occupied in Ukraine since 2022.

The North Caucasus Federal District saw the largest regional increase, accounting for over 30 percent of the rise. Dagestan and Chechnya reported nearly double the growth elsewhere, with 14,800 and 12,400 new cases, respectively. Following these regions were Novosibirsk Oblast and Moscow Oblast, with increases of 7,600. Demographers cite widespread false disability claims in the North Caucasus, where approximately 15.9 percent of Chechnya’s population reportedly holds disabled status, more than twice the national average.

Childhood disabilities also contributed to the rise, accounting for one-third of the increase. In 2023, 89,000 children were diagnosed with disabilities, the highest number since at least 2008.

Migrants from occupied regions may have contributed significantly to the rise in both child and adult disabilities, according to a demographer interviewed by Verstka. In 2023, 93,700 residents of occupied regions registered as residents in Russia, particularly in Moscow Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Krasnodar Krai. These regions saw some of the highest increases in childhood disabilities.

The data also showed a marked increase in disabilities that may be linked to military injuries. The category for “simultaneous hearing and vision impairment” saw a 75 percent rise, likely due to injuries such as concussions. Disabilities requiring wheelchair use increased as well, with 79,000 people registering — 23,000 more than in 2021. Determining the proportion of disabilities attributed specifically to military injuries, however, remains challenging.