December 31, 2022

A Year of Decline


A Year of Decline

The authoritative Russian publication The Bell has offered a roundup of the costs of Russia’s War on Ukraine that shows the deep and enduring economic and social costs this horrific folly is having on the country. Here is a summary of some of their findings:

In early 2022, the Russian economy was projected to see 3% GDP growth over the coming year. But, as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, it has fallen 2.8%, resulting on a nearly 6% gap between what is and what could have been.

In 2021 prices, that 6% GDP gap equals roughly R9 trillion – the cost of the Sochi olympics or 15 bridges to Sakhalin.

The middle class (30% of the population) has been hardest hit by the economic downturn, seeing their real income drop 5%, while for the Russian population as a whole the drop has been 2.2%.

As a result of Russia’s war and the ensuing sanctions exchange, Russians have been forbidden from investing in “unfriendly countries.” The inability to invest in US securities over the past year, The Bell estimates, has resulted in a 90% reduction in individuals' investment income over the coming 10 years.

An estimated 500,000 Russians have fled the country.

The immediate effect of the mobilization of 300,000 Russian men, if they serve an entire year, could lead to 25,000 missed births in 2023.

Demographers estimate that Russia’s fertility rate will decline year on year from 1.5 per female to 1.2, causing annual births to decline from 1.4 million to 1.2 million. Fertility rates should be in the range of 2.05 to 2.1 in order for a population to remain basically stable.

In order to evade state blockages of internet sites, Russians are downloading VPN software in record numbers. From March to June of last year Russia ranked second in the world for the number of VPN apps downloaded. YouTube remains unblocked, yet it is expected at any time. If that happens, the network stress of rerouting such traffic through VPN apps is expected to be severe.

Prices for airline tickets to Europe have tripled. And, given that most all European countries have banned direct flights with Russia, the logistics are more difficult, requiring travelers to fly via Istanbul, Erevan, Astana, and other capitals.

The government has stopped publishing passenger data, but Kommersant recently discovered and published data showing that international passenger travel to and from Russia was at 12.1 million passengers during the first nine months of the year – a drop of 13% versus the same period in 2021, and 72% vs. 2019 (42 million passengers), the last pre-Covid year.

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Some of our Books

Jews in Service to the Tsar
October 09, 2011

Jews in Service to the Tsar

Benjamin Disraeli advised, “Read no history: nothing but biography, for that is life without theory.” With Jews in Service to the Tsar, Lev Berdnikov offers us 28 biographies spanning five centuries of Russian Jewish history, and each portrait opens a new window onto the history of Eastern Europe’s Jews, illuminating dark corners and challenging widely-held conceptions about the role of Jews in Russian history.

93 Untranslatable Russian Words
December 01, 2008

93 Untranslatable Russian Words

Every language has concepts, ideas, words and idioms that are nearly impossible to translate into another language. This book looks at nearly 100 such Russian words and offers paths to their understanding and translation by way of examples from literature and everyday life. Difficult to translate words and concepts are introduced with dictionary definitions, then elucidated with citations from literature, speech and prose, helping the student of Russian comprehend the word/concept in context.

Moscow and Muscovites
November 26, 2013

Moscow and Muscovites

Vladimir Gilyarovsky's classic portrait of the Russian capital is one of Russians’ most beloved books. Yet it has never before been translated into English. Until now! It is a spectactular verbal pastiche: conversation, from gutter gibberish to the drawing room; oratory, from illiterates to aristocrats; prose, from boilerplate to Tolstoy; poetry, from earthy humor to Pushkin. 

Steppe
July 15, 2022

Steppe

This is the work that made Chekhov, launching his career as a writer and playwright of national and international renown. Retranslated and updated, this new bilingual edition is a super way to improve your Russian.

Bears in the Caviar
May 01, 2015

Bears in the Caviar

Bears in the Caviar is a hilarious and insightful memoir by a diplomat who was “present at the creation” of US-Soviet relations. Charles Thayer headed off to Russia in 1933, calculating that if he could just learn Russian and be on the spot when the US and USSR established relations, he could make himself indispensable and start a career in the foreign service. Remarkably, he pulled it of.

Fearful Majesty
July 01, 2014

Fearful Majesty

This acclaimed biography of one of Russia’s most important and tyrannical rulers is not only a rich, readable biography, it is also surprisingly timely, revealing how many of the issues Russia faces today have their roots in Ivan’s reign.

Faith & Humor
December 01, 2011

Faith & Humor

A book that dares to explore the humanity of priests and pilgrims, saints and sinners, Faith & Humor has been both a runaway bestseller in Russia and the focus of heated controversy – as often happens when a thoughtful writer takes on sacred cows. The stories, aphorisms, anecdotes, dialogues and adventures in this volume comprise an encyclopedia of modern Russian Orthodoxy, and thereby of Russian life.

Fish
February 01, 2010

Fish

This mesmerizing novel from one of Russia’s most important modern authors traces the life journey of a selfless Russian everywoman. In the wake of the Soviet breakup, inexorable forces drag Vera across the breadth of the Russian empire. Facing a relentless onslaught of human and social trials, she swims against the current of life, countering adversity and pain with compassion and hope, in many ways personifying Mother Russia’s torment and resilience amid the Soviet disintegration.

Russian Rules
November 16, 2011

Russian Rules

From the shores of the White Sea to Moscow and the Northern Caucasus, Russian Rules is a high-speed thriller based on actual events, terrifying possibilities, and some really stupid decisions.

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