December 31, 2022

A Year of Decline


A Year of Decline

The authoritative Russian publication The Bell has offered a roundup of the costs of Russia’s War on Ukraine that shows the deep and enduring economic and social costs this horrific folly is having on the country. Here is a summary of some of their findings:

In early 2022, the Russian economy was projected to see 3% GDP growth over the coming year. But, as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, it has fallen 2.8%, resulting on a nearly 6% gap between what is and what could have been.

In 2021 prices, that 6% GDP gap equals roughly R9 trillion – the cost of the Sochi olympics or 15 bridges to Sakhalin.

The middle class (30% of the population) has been hardest hit by the economic downturn, seeing their real income drop 5%, while for the Russian population as a whole the drop has been 2.2%.

As a result of Russia’s war and the ensuing sanctions exchange, Russians have been forbidden from investing in “unfriendly countries.” The inability to invest in US securities over the past year, The Bell estimates, has resulted in a 90% reduction in individuals' investment income over the coming 10 years.

An estimated 500,000 Russians have fled the country.

The immediate effect of the mobilization of 300,000 Russian men, if they serve an entire year, could lead to 25,000 missed births in 2023.

Demographers estimate that Russia’s fertility rate will decline year on year from 1.5 per female to 1.2, causing annual births to decline from 1.4 million to 1.2 million. Fertility rates should be in the range of 2.05 to 2.1 in order for a population to remain basically stable.

In order to evade state blockages of internet sites, Russians are downloading VPN software in record numbers. From March to June of last year Russia ranked second in the world for the number of VPN apps downloaded. YouTube remains unblocked, yet it is expected at any time. If that happens, the network stress of rerouting such traffic through VPN apps is expected to be severe.

Prices for airline tickets to Europe have tripled. And, given that most all European countries have banned direct flights with Russia, the logistics are more difficult, requiring travelers to fly via Istanbul, Erevan, Astana, and other capitals.

The government has stopped publishing passenger data, but Kommersant recently discovered and published data showing that international passenger travel to and from Russia was at 12.1 million passengers during the first nine months of the year – a drop of 13% versus the same period in 2021, and 72% vs. 2019 (42 million passengers), the last pre-Covid year.

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Some of our Books

93 Untranslatable Russian Words
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93 Untranslatable Russian Words

Every language has concepts, ideas, words and idioms that are nearly impossible to translate into another language. This book looks at nearly 100 such Russian words and offers paths to their understanding and translation by way of examples from literature and everyday life. Difficult to translate words and concepts are introduced with dictionary definitions, then elucidated with citations from literature, speech and prose, helping the student of Russian comprehend the word/concept in context.

The Little Humpbacked Horse
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The Little Humpbacked Horse

A beloved Russian classic about a resourceful Russian peasant, Vanya, and his miracle-working horse, who together undergo various trials, exploits and adventures at the whim of a laughable tsar, told in rich, narrative poetry.

Marooned in Moscow
May 01, 2011

Marooned in Moscow

This gripping autobiography plays out against the backdrop of Russia's bloody Civil War, and was one of the first Western eyewitness accounts of life in post-revolutionary Russia. Marooned in Moscow provides a fascinating account of one woman's entry into war-torn Russia in early 1920, first-person impressions of many in the top Soviet leadership, and accounts of the author's increasingly dangerous work as a journalist and spy, to say nothing of her work on behalf of prisoners, her two arrests, and her eventual ten-month-long imprisonment, including in the infamous Lubyanka prison. It is a veritable encyclopedia of life in Russia in the early 1920s.

Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka
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Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka

In this comprehensive, quixotic and addictive book, Edwin Trommelen explores all facets of the Russian obsession with vodka. Peering chiefly through the lenses of history and literature, Trommelen offers up an appropriately complex, rich and bittersweet portrait, based on great respect for Russian culture.

Life Stories
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Life Stories

The Life Stories collection is a nice introduction to contemporary Russian fiction: many of the 19 authors featured here have won major Russian literary prizes and/or become bestsellers. These are life-affirming stories of love, family, hope, rebirth, mystery and imagination, masterfully translated by some of the best Russian-English translators working today. The selections reassert the power of Russian literature to affect readers of all cultures in profound and lasting ways. Best of all, 100% of the profits from the sale of this book are going to benefit Russian hospice—not-for-profit care for fellow human beings who are nearing the end of their own life stories.

Fish
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Fish

This mesmerizing novel from one of Russia’s most important modern authors traces the life journey of a selfless Russian everywoman. In the wake of the Soviet breakup, inexorable forces drag Vera across the breadth of the Russian empire. Facing a relentless onslaught of human and social trials, she swims against the current of life, countering adversity and pain with compassion and hope, in many ways personifying Mother Russia’s torment and resilience amid the Soviet disintegration.

Murder at the Dacha
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Murder at the Dacha

Senior Lieutenant Pavel Matyushkin has a problem. Several, actually. Not the least of them is the fact that a powerful Soviet boss has been murdered, and Matyushkin's surly commander has given him an unreasonably short time frame to close the case.

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