December 31, 2022

A Year of Decline


A Year of Decline

The authoritative Russian publication The Bell has offered a roundup of the costs of Russia’s War on Ukraine that shows the deep and enduring economic and social costs this horrific folly is having on the country. Here is a summary of some of their findings:

In early 2022, the Russian economy was projected to see 3% GDP growth over the coming year. But, as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, it has fallen 2.8%, resulting on a nearly 6% gap between what is and what could have been.

In 2021 prices, that 6% GDP gap equals roughly R9 trillion – the cost of the Sochi olympics or 15 bridges to Sakhalin.

The middle class (30% of the population) has been hardest hit by the economic downturn, seeing their real income drop 5%, while for the Russian population as a whole the drop has been 2.2%.

As a result of Russia’s war and the ensuing sanctions exchange, Russians have been forbidden from investing in “unfriendly countries.” The inability to invest in US securities over the past year, The Bell estimates, has resulted in a 90% reduction in individuals' investment income over the coming 10 years.

An estimated 500,000 Russians have fled the country.

The immediate effect of the mobilization of 300,000 Russian men, if they serve an entire year, could lead to 25,000 missed births in 2023.

Demographers estimate that Russia’s fertility rate will decline year on year from 1.5 per female to 1.2, causing annual births to decline from 1.4 million to 1.2 million. Fertility rates should be in the range of 2.05 to 2.1 in order for a population to remain basically stable.

In order to evade state blockages of internet sites, Russians are downloading VPN software in record numbers. From March to June of last year Russia ranked second in the world for the number of VPN apps downloaded. YouTube remains unblocked, yet it is expected at any time. If that happens, the network stress of rerouting such traffic through VPN apps is expected to be severe.

Prices for airline tickets to Europe have tripled. And, given that most all European countries have banned direct flights with Russia, the logistics are more difficult, requiring travelers to fly via Istanbul, Erevan, Astana, and other capitals.

The government has stopped publishing passenger data, but Kommersant recently discovered and published data showing that international passenger travel to and from Russia was at 12.1 million passengers during the first nine months of the year – a drop of 13% versus the same period in 2021, and 72% vs. 2019 (42 million passengers), the last pre-Covid year.

Like this post? Get a weekly email digest + member-only deals

Some of our Books

Murder at the Dacha
July 01, 2013

Murder at the Dacha

Senior Lieutenant Pavel Matyushkin has a problem. Several, actually. Not the least of them is the fact that a powerful Soviet boss has been murdered, and Matyushkin's surly commander has given him an unreasonably short time frame to close the case.

A Taste of Chekhov
December 24, 2022

A Taste of Chekhov

This compact volume is an introduction to the works of Chekhov the master storyteller, via nine stories spanning the last twenty years of his life.

Fish
February 01, 2010

Fish

This mesmerizing novel from one of Russia’s most important modern authors traces the life journey of a selfless Russian everywoman. In the wake of the Soviet breakup, inexorable forces drag Vera across the breadth of the Russian empire. Facing a relentless onslaught of human and social trials, she swims against the current of life, countering adversity and pain with compassion and hope, in many ways personifying Mother Russia’s torment and resilience amid the Soviet disintegration.

Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka
November 01, 2012

Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka

In this comprehensive, quixotic and addictive book, Edwin Trommelen explores all facets of the Russian obsession with vodka. Peering chiefly through the lenses of history and literature, Trommelen offers up an appropriately complex, rich and bittersweet portrait, based on great respect for Russian culture.

How Russia Got That Way
September 20, 2025

How Russia Got That Way

A fast-paced crash course in Russian history, from Norsemen to Navalny, that explores the ways the Kremlin uses history to achieve its ends.

Survival Russian
February 01, 2009

Survival Russian

Survival Russian is an intensely practical guide to conversational, colloquial and culture-rich Russian. It uses humor, current events and thematically-driven essays to deepen readers’ understanding of Russian language and culture. This enlarged Second Edition of Survival Russian includes over 90 essays and illuminates over 2000 invaluable Russian phrases and words.

About Us

Russian Life is a publication of a 30-year-young, award-winning publishing house that creates a bimonthly magazine, books, maps, and other products for Russophiles the world over.

Latest Posts

Our Contacts

Russian Life
73 Main Street, Suite 402
Montpelier VT 05602

802-223-4955