February 12, 2026

Russia's War Falls on the Poor


Russia's War Falls on the Poor
Military exercises. Yevgeny Kel, Wikimedia Commons

The independent media outlet The Bell analyzed data on Russians killed in the war in Ukraine by region and concluded that the war is being fought largely by the country’s poorest people. The outlet said the trend is likely to deepen as the economy cools.

According to The Bell, for nearly four years, Russia’s official rhetoric has framed the war as a shared trial for all peoples and regions, emphasizing that sacrifices are borne equally. But casualty data compiled by Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian Service suggest otherwise, showing sharp regional inequality.

The share of people killed in Ukraine relative to a region’s population varies not just by multiples but by an order of magnitude. In Moscow, the rate is 0.02%. In Chechnya and Saint Petersburg, it is 0.03%. In Buryatia, it is 0.4%. In Chukotka and Tuva, it is 0.5%.

That means a resident of Moscow is about 25 times less likely to die in the war in Ukraine than a resident of Chukotka or Tuva. The Bell said it identified about 20 such "anomalous" regions.

The Bell’s analysis argued that, for most regions, one rule holds: the share of wartime deaths correlates directly with a key indicator of living standards: the proportion of people living below the poverty line. Under Russia’s official methodology, people are classified as poor if their income falls below the subsistence minimum set by the state statistics agency, Rosstat. As of January 1, 2026, that threshold is R8,939 (about $115) a month.

The outlet said the correlation reflects a shift in recruitment strategy. By the second year of the war, after gauging public backlash to the mobilization of 300,000 reservists in September 2022, Russian authorities moved toward recruiting contract soldiers. Recruits are promised high salaries and one-time signing bonuses that are large by the standards of most Russian regions.

The Bell separated out losses among volunteers and those who signed contracts with the Defense Ministry, and found the same correlation for contract soldiers as for the military overall.

By contrast, the publication said the death rate is not linked to other indicators. It tested the relationship with measures such as a region’s overall wealth: gross regional product per capita and wage growth.

The regional distribution of deaths supports what The Bell described as a likely Kremlin strategy: keeping the burdens of war as far as possible from regions considered crucial to maintaining social order and security while drawing more heavily from remote, poorer eastern regions with strained budgets and a high share of non-Russian populations.

As economic growth slows and wage increases lose momentum, The Bell said, the pattern is likely to intensify. Economic conditions in individual regions affect the size of bonuses offered to contract recruits. But the influence of that factor on regional losses is declining, The Bell said, because some regions are willing to sign up residents from elsewhere by offering higher one-time payments.

You Might Also Like

2026: Year of Unity
  • February 08, 2026

2026: Year of Unity

Putin has declared 2026 to be the "Year of Unity of the Peoples of Russia."
Veterans Struggle for Jobs
  • February 03, 2026

Veterans Struggle for Jobs

Many former soldiers say stigma and disability keep them from getting the jobs they need to carry on.
Don't Worry, the City's Got It
  • February 01, 2026

Don't Worry, the City's Got It

In Russia's latest efforts to boost birthrates, St. Petersburg students who have children will be paid R200,000.
Like this post? Get a weekly email digest + member-only deals

Some of our Books

Fish
February 01, 2010

Fish

This mesmerizing novel from one of Russia’s most important modern authors traces the life journey of a selfless Russian everywoman. In the wake of the Soviet breakup, inexorable forces drag Vera across the breadth of the Russian empire. Facing a relentless onslaught of human and social trials, she swims against the current of life, countering adversity and pain with compassion and hope, in many ways personifying Mother Russia’s torment and resilience amid the Soviet disintegration.

Bears in the Caviar
May 01, 2015

Bears in the Caviar

Bears in the Caviar is a hilarious and insightful memoir by a diplomat who was “present at the creation” of US-Soviet relations. Charles Thayer headed off to Russia in 1933, calculating that if he could just learn Russian and be on the spot when the US and USSR established relations, he could make himself indispensable and start a career in the foreign service. Remarkably, he pulled it of.

How Russia Got That Way
September 20, 2025

How Russia Got That Way

A fast-paced crash course in Russian history, from Norsemen to Navalny, that explores the ways the Kremlin uses history to achieve its ends.

At the Circus
January 01, 2013

At the Circus

This wonderful novella by Alexander Kuprin tells the story of the wrestler Arbuzov and his battle against a renowned American wrestler. Rich in detail and characterization, At the Circus brims with excitement and life. You can smell the sawdust in the big top, see the vivid and colorful characters, sense the tension build as Arbuzov readies to face off against the American.

Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka
November 01, 2012

Davai! The Russians and Their Vodka

In this comprehensive, quixotic and addictive book, Edwin Trommelen explores all facets of the Russian obsession with vodka. Peering chiefly through the lenses of history and literature, Trommelen offers up an appropriately complex, rich and bittersweet portrait, based on great respect for Russian culture.

The Samovar Murders
November 01, 2019

The Samovar Murders

The murder of a poet is always more than a murder. When a famous writer is brutally stabbed on the campus of Moscow’s Lumumba University, the son of a recently deposed African president confesses, and the case assumes political implications that no one wants any part of.

Stargorod: A Novel in Many Voices
May 01, 2013

Stargorod: A Novel in Many Voices

Stargorod is a mid-sized provincial city that exists only in Russian metaphorical space. It has its roots in Gogol, and Ilf and Petrov, and is a place far from Moscow, but close to Russian hearts. It is a place of mystery and normality, of provincial innocence and Black Earth wisdom. Strange, inexplicable things happen in Stargorod. So do good things. And bad things. A lot like life everywhere, one might say. Only with a heavy dose of vodka, longing and mystery.

The Latchkey Murders
July 01, 2015

The Latchkey Murders

Senior Lieutenant Pavel Matyushkin is back on the case in this prequel to the popular mystery Murder at the Dacha, in which a serial killer is on the loose in Khrushchev’s Moscow...

White Magic
June 01, 2021

White Magic

The thirteen tales in this volume – all written by Russian émigrés, writers who fled their native country in the early twentieth century – contain a fair dose of magic and mysticism, of terror and the supernatural. There are Petersburg revenants, grief-stricken avengers, Lithuanian vampires, flying skeletons, murders and duels, and even a ghostly Edgar Allen Poe.

About Us

Russian Life is a publication of a 30-year-young, award-winning publishing house that creates a bimonthly magazine, books, maps, and other products for Russophiles the world over.

Latest Posts

Our Contacts

Russian Life
73 Main Street, Suite 402
Montpelier VT 05602

802-223-4955