After Russia’s September war with Georgia, all eyes have turned to other border states where friction with Russia runs high. At the top of the list is Ukraine.
The two countries were close allies before 2004. Yet the Orange Revolution, large Russian populations in Eastern Ukraine (see map), the looming departure of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from the Crimean Peninsula, and Ukraine’s active interest in NATO membership have combined with the Georgian War to bring relations to a new low.
The AP reported that Ukrainian officials warned Russia in late September not to encourage separatist groups in Ukraine. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Security Service accused Russia of supporting extremists in the breakaway regions of Georgia and Moldova‘s Transdniester region. The Ukrainian government apparently fears that Russia would not be averse to a secession scenario for Crimea. Officials have accused the Russian government of handing out Russian passports on the peninsula, as happened in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the years before the Georgian War.
While few countries have responded favorably to Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the High Council of the Crimea has called upon the Ukrainian High Rada to recognize the regions’ independence. Of 100 Crimean deputies, 79 voted to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Various parties in the Crimea (which is over 50 percent ethnic Russian) held demonstrations of solidarity with the republics, and criticized the actions of Georgia, according to the local newspaper Novosti Kryma.
This all flies in the face of the official Ukrainian stance in support of Georgia. While political commentator Alexander Dugin told the Los Angeles Times that Russia “would react to support an uprising in the eastern parts of Ukraine and the Crimea,” Russian diplomat Vsevolod Loskutov told Izbrannoe newspaper that the idea of a Russian plot in the Crimea is a myth. “We underscore our respect for Ukraine’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Loskutov said.
As reported previously in Russian Life, Russia has a particularly acute strategic interest in Crimea, as the Russian Black Sea Fleet has a navy base there. The bilateral agreement allowing the base runs out in 2017, and while Russia would like to prolong the arrangement, Kiev would like to see it lapse early.
Finally, in mid-September, the Georgian War precipitated the collapse of Ukraine’s governing “Orange” coalition. President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko split when Yushchenko accused Timoshenko of not supporting Georgia vigorously enough during the conflict over South Ossetia.
–maria antonova
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