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March 01, 2022

Invading Ukraine, Then vs. Now

Invading Ukraine, Then vs. Now
A section of the Ukrainian-Russian border. Eduard Kryzhanivskyi

Written two weeks prior to the invasion.

In February 2014, the Russian invasion of Crimea was sudden and swift. Within days, the offices of Ukraine’s central government on the peninsula were dismantled. Within weeks, a “referendum” was held while heavily-armed, ununiformed soldiers (nicknamed “polite people” by admirers) patrolled the city centers and besieged Ukrainian army bases.

Within a month, Ukraine’s military was expelled from Crimea. Ukrainian officers waited for orders from the capital but received none; sailors left their ships and sat in local cafeterias over their solitary meals, abandoned but thankful that no bloodshed had occurred, and that war with Russia – so recently an ally in the Black Sea – had been avoided.

Eight years later, we know that war was of course not avoided after all. Over 13,000 people have been killed by the fighting in Eastern Ukraine. And, as the prospect of a Russian invasion looms darkly over Ukraine at press time, it’s clear this time it would be very different.

Ukraine’s army has been hardened by years of fighting and is armed with weapons from Western allies. Ukrainians certainly won’t embrace “polite people” from the East. And Russian territory will be difficult to protect, due to its long and messy border with Ukraine – a very different situation from the difficult-to-access Crimean Peninsula.

Most of all, while the relatively bloodless seizure of Crimea was applauded by many Russians, due to the peninsula’s historical, strategic, and sentimental importance, how would the invasion be sold to the Russian public this time? Impoverished by years of sanctions following the 2014 annexation and fatigued by Covid, “more and more Russians scratch their heads and ask… why do we have to be responsible for this aggressive and provocative foreign policy?” according to Lev Gudkov, head of Levada Center, a public opinion research organization.

Furthermore, the rest of the world sees Russia very differently now. Eight years ago, Vladimir Putin was hosting the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, and his top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, was being lauded for his instrumental role in the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Today, Europe and the United States are wary of the Kremlin, scrutinize its every move, and are skeptical of anything said by Russian officials, frequent sources of disinformation. If a conflict is sparked, there simply isn’t any room left for plausible deniability, and the weight of new sanctions would be crippling.

So why is Russia even toying with the possibility of a conflict? Its long-term grievances against NATO expansion in Europe are real, and Ukraine slipping away is seen as a huge security risk. Ukraine is important to Russia precisely in the context of its concerns relating to European security in general, said analyst and University of London lecturer Mark Galeotti in his podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows: “If they [Russia’s leaders] felt everything was fine there… Ukraine looking westward would not have the same existential security edge to it.”

The two issues are inextricably linked and it’s wrong to see only one as the reason for the current crisis.

There is yet another factor: in 2024, Putin’s second, two-term presidency will come to an end. Though he now has a constitutional right to run for office again, the move would be controversial. The Russian president is running out of time. To carry on after a quarter century in power, he needs to solidify his legitimacy. Perhaps he wants to achieve the great legacy of “unifying” Russian-speaking people across borders, even if it takes bloodshed. Or perhaps he is hoping to structure a new European security framework using a cocky bluff.

While countless analysts confidently prognosticate, the truth is: nobody really knows.

Tags: CrimeawarUkraine

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