To consider how U.S. policy toward Russia might change under President Barack Obama, we contacted Michael McFaul, a foreign policy advisor to president-elect Obama during his campaign, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Director of the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. McFaul declined to be interviewed during the transition period, instead referring us to his September 9, 2008 testimony before the US Congress, which we extract below.
Russia’s government actions in Georgia constitute just one front of a comprehensive campaign to reassert Russian dominance in the region through both coercive and cooperative instruments... This campaign of asserting Russian hegemony in the region started well before the Russian intervention in Georgia and will continue well beyond. And it is more than coincidence that the emergence of a more bellicose, anti-American, and anti-Western Russian foreign policy has occurred in parallel to the growing erosion of democracy inside Russia. Developing a sustainable, smart, and multi-dimensional strategy for addressing a resurgent and autocratic Russia has now crystallized as a central 21st century foreign policy challenge for the United States and our allies....
The first element of a new strategy must be to re-establish unity with our European allies....
Second, NATO members must affirm their Article V commitments that an attack on one country in the alliance is an attack on all. In addition, NATO allies feeling especially worried about future Russian aggression should be given additional defensive assistance.
Third, the United States, Europe, and the rest of the international community must stand firm in demanding that Russian soldiers inside Georgia return to their August 7th positions and that the world continue to affirm its recognition of the territorial integrity of Georgia.
Fourth, the United States and Europe must work together to help rebuild Georgia....
Fifth, the United States and Europe must act proactively to deter Russian hostile actions against the other post-Soviet democracy at risk, Ukraine. The deep cuts in the Freedom Support Act assistance to Ukraine, from $138.6 million in FY2005 to $72.4 million in FY2008, must be reversed, as these cuts reflect premature optimism about the stability of Ukrainian democracy....
Sixth, the United States, Europe and our partners in Eurasia must reaffirm together the permanence of existing borders of all members of the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). All international forums, including the UN Security Council, must affirm this principle. Russia of course, would veto a UNSC resolution on this issue, but compelling Russia to demonstrate its isolation is important symbolically....
Seventh, the United States must work closely with our partners in Europe and Eurasia to reduce their overdependence on Russian energy exports. We must understand that this dependency works both ways; the Russian economy would suffer severely from any sustained attempt by the Kremlin to disrupt energy exports for political purposes....
Eighth, the United States must coordinate closely with our allies to consider future actions against the Russian government if it refuses to adhere to the ceasefire agreement that it signed [in Georgia]. Russia’s actions already have helped to trigger the biggest losses on the Russian stock market since August 1998, sparking a real debate among Russian economic elites about the wisdom of this war. Russian diplomatic isolation is also very palpable – only one country, Nicaragua, has joined Russia in recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states – causing some within the Russian foreign policy elite to question the long-term Russian security benefits of these recent actions... the list of consideration for future actions must include the tabling of the U.S.-Russian civilian nuclear agreement; postponement of Russian membership into the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); targeted sanctions against those companies making profits from their activities in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and new regulations to generate more transparency of actions and motivations of Russian state-owned corporations operating in Europe and the United States; visa restrictions against those individuals most responsible for this attempt to dismember Georgia; and if the crisis prolongs, a reconsideration of holding the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, just dozens of miles from these disputed territories....
Ninth, the United States must do more to increase the flow of information and independent news into Russia and the region. The Soviet-style propaganda being broadcast on state controlled television stations today inside Russia is truly shocking, even for someone like me who lived in the Soviet Union.... Amazingly, at a time when more independent media and information is needed, the United States government has devoted paltry funds to Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and Voice of America (VOA) programming for this region, and has reduced funding for independent media development within these countries. While the sum total of all American international broadcasting efforts is roughly $800 million a year, RFE/RL’s total operating budget is about $82 million, and of that sum only $9 million is budgeted for Russian Service broadcasts. These figures do not reflect American strategic priorities. To reduce stereotypes and increase understanding, the United States should also devote more resources to encourage exchanges between Americans and Russians.
Tenth, the United States must recommit to assisting the flow of democratic ideas throughout the region. Amazingly, at a time when autocracy is on the rise and young democracies are under assault throughout the former Soviet Union, the Bush Administration and the U.S. Congress have worked together to slash funding for the FREEDOM Support Act (FSA). In FY2000, the total FSA budget was $835.8 million. In FY2008, the total FSA budget was only $396.5 million, while requested funds for FY2009, as I understand it, are only $364 million. These numbers either reflect a misunderstanding of the anti-democratic trends in the region or an admission of defeat – a declaration that the United States has given up on the cause of freedom in the former Soviet Union. Withdrawal from this democratic struggle at this moment would be a terrible mistake.... In addition to greater FSA funds, the U.S. Congress also must consider increased funding for the National Endowment for Democracy earmarked for Europe and Eurasia, and the passage of the Eurasia Foundation Act (H.R. 2949/S. 3024), which would provide direct funding for this effective enabler of civil society throughout the region....
Eleventh, the next president of the United States must move immediately to establish a direct dialogue with President Medvedev to discuss issues of mutual interest. One reason that the United States had such little leverage in deterring Russian aggression last month is because the U.S.-Russian bilateral relationship is largely empty....
For too long, Russian and American officials have pursued policies unilaterally, without engaging in bilateral diplomacy beforehand. The American and Russian governments must develop multiple lines of communications between our various government bureaucracies to reduce the potential for misunderstandings and increase the possibility for diplomacy during crises… The degree of disconnect between Moscow and Washington today is dangerous as misperceptions can produce bad outcomes for both countries....
Twelfth and finally, even though the current Russian government is pursuing policies that isolate Russia from Western institutions and the international community more generally, the United States and our allies must continue to embrace Russian integration with the West as a long-term strategic objective. Eventually, the current leadership in Russia may begin to see how the costs of their current actions outweigh the benefits, or a new government might gradually change course. When such signs of change do become evident, the United States and our allies must be ready to act upon them. Full integration of Russia into the West, including even NATO membership of a democratic Russia, should remain an aspiration for visionary American and European leaders.
Russian Life is a publication of a 30-year-young, award-winning publishing house that creates a bimonthly magazine, books, maps, and other products for Russophiles the world over.
Russian Life 73 Main Street, Suite 402 Montpelier VT 05602
802-223-4955
[email protected]
