President Vladimir Putin is keeping mum about his choice of a successor for 2008. And wise that he does. The longer he holds out and the more he denies he won’t run for a third term (nota bene: the Russian constitution only bars a third “consecutive” term, leading to speculation on all manner of scenarios), the longer he avoids lame duck status.
Still, we can’t help evaluating the front runners. A recent VTsIOM opinion poll had Russians rank their five most trusted politicians. Putin came out on top (54.6%), followed by Dmitry Medvedev (16.4%), Sergei Shoigu (12.9%), Sergei Ivanov (11.1%), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (8.9%) and Yuri Luzhkov (6.9%). Meanwhile, at press time, we discovered a UK online sports bookie (see box, right) that was taking bets on the winner of Russia’s 2008 presidential bid. While the methodology of their odds-making was not disclosed (one assumes they did not put a call into Boris Berezovsky), the results are rather interesting, in particular the high rankings of Yuri Trutnev and Gennady Zyuganov. Notably absent: Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov.
Of course, Russia’s president will be elected by a democratic election (barring the Yeltsin Surprise variant used in 1999), which means “one man, one vote.” Well, except that the vote of one particular man will have considerably more weight than all the others...
(P.S. visit the Russian Life website for complete bios and a handicapping of all the top candidates...)
Dmitry Medvedev
1st Deputy Prime Minister
A youthful 41, Medvedev is both thebookie’s strong horse and Russians’ most trusted politician after Putin. A moderate, he is one of Putin’s longest-serving and most trusted aides, having come to Moscow from St. Petersburg in 1999.
YURI TRUTNEV
Natural Resources Minister
Trutnev, 50, does not register among top politicians trusted by Russians, but he rates third on the bookie list. He rose to prominence as governor of Perm region and shares with Putin a love of karate.
SERGEI SHOIGU
Emergencies Minister
Battle-hardened by leading Russia’s response to difficult crises and emergencies over the last few years, Shoigu, 51, is Russians’ third most trusted leader and is an ethnic Tuvan.
SERGEI IVANOV
Defense Minister
Frequently queried about his presidential ambitions, Ivanov has the national security brief going for him (as well as a long career in the KGB, SVR and FSB). He is also fourth most trusted by Russians and the oldest (53) of the front runners.
Betting on the President
(Bookie Odds: December 28, 2006)
Dmitry Medvedev 2/1
Mikhail Kasyanov 9/4
Yuri Trutnev 6/1
Boris Gryzlov 8/1
Gennady Zyuganov 8/1
Sergei Ivanov 12/1
Sergei Stepashin 14/1
Sergei Lebedev 14/1
Mikhail Fradkov 20/1
Viktor Kristenko 20/1
Sergei Shoigu 25/1
Mikhail Lapsin 33/1
German Gref 33/1
Rashid Nurgaliev 33/1
Igor Ivanov 33/1
Alexei Kudrin 50/1
Nikolai Patroshev 50/1
Vladimir Zhirinovsky 50/1
Mikhail Khordokovsky 66/1
Roman Abramovitch 100/1
Source: stanjames.com
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